It is a foregone conclusion that the Taliban will regain control of Afghanistan, and its control over Afghanistan will even exceed that from 1996 to 2001. Before the U.S. withdrawal, the Taliban may have planned how to counter attack. First, they controlled the border areas, especially the northern border areas of Afghanistan, which means that even if the "Northern Alliance" re established its flag, it will be surrounded and unable to obtain external assistance. Objectively speaking, although there are many armed forces against the Taliban, in the absence of external forces, these armed forces are either eliminated by the Taliban or surrendered to the Taliban. The situation is not optimistic. Of course, there are exceptions. Extreme armed forces such as the "Islamic state" are extremely difficult to eliminate and adapt to the soil of Afghanistan.

The recent hot spot in the situation in Afghanistan is the talks between Masud Jr. and the Taliban. Taliban leaders claim that Masood is ready to surrender to the Taliban. It is unclear what commitments and interests the Taliban have given Masood. Although madoud Jr. has not yet made a public statement, in an interview, madoud Jr. said that he is ready to establish an inclusive government with the Taliban through negotiations, but this government is by no means characterized by extremism. Compared with mardud Jr., Afghan vice president Saleh is more determined to resist the Taliban.

Masood admitted that his resistance group maintained contact with the Taliban. In Panjshir Province, Masood Jr. and Afghan vice president Saleh led a 7000 strong armed force and won many battles against the Taliban. At the same time, more Afghans have defected to them. It is reported that little general Dostam has led more than 1000 people to Panjshir province to join them. However, it's hard to say how long the Resistance Army can last. They lack external assistance, especially ammunition, oil and heavy weapons, lack the firm support of local tribes, and even can't pay their wages.

The Taliban are deploying troops to prepare for a large-scale encirclement and suppression operation against the resistance forces in Panjshir province. Of course, the success of the encirclement and suppression operation is another problem. Too many Afghans and foreigners died in Panjshir canyon. In the recent series of battles, the Taliban suffered great losses, which once again verified the true combat effectiveness of the Taliban: there are many factors for the Taliban's series of victories in the face of the Afghan government army. The biggest factor is the collapse of the Afghan government army, which has fled before seeing the Taliban.

However, the latest intelligence shows that even if the talks between Masood and the Taliban succeed, they are likely to be retaliated by the Taliban. In the battle in Panjshir Canyon, the resistance armed forces brought a team of Taliban armed forces into the siege by means of fraudulent surrender, followed by gunfire, and no more than 300 Taliban militants survived. The Taliban have begun to supplement Panjshir province and contact the elders of local departments at the same time. In addition, Masud is not as firm as Saleh. It needs to continue to observe how long the resistance in Panjshir province can last.